The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation for Projections of Winter Mean Precipitation in Europe

Climate models generally project an increase in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index under a future high-emissions scenario, alongside precipitation northern Europe and decrease southern Europe. The extent to which forced NAO trends are important for European their uncertainty remains unclear. We show using Multimodel Large Ensemble Archive that plays small role mean projections 2080–2099. Conversely, half of model is potentially reducible through improved understanding projections. Extreme positive winters frequency most as consequence changes. These extremes also have more severe impacts, largely because This has implications resilience extreme winters, frequently societal impacts.